EUR/USD headed for parity at the foot of the hill?
Nothing else can move the euro’s fall from the headlines this week. The 1.06 level flattered to deceive as a solid support, but we currently stand at 1.052 and there doesn’t seem to be anything in sight that can halt the strong fall.
Next week we’ll be looking for what Fed chairwoman Janet Yellen has to say. Expectations are that a statement indicating a rate rise sooner in 2015 will strengthen the dollar and respectively put pressure on the euro.
Oil is making another drop after Brent reached $63 with many predicting that the recent weeks were nothing but a retracement before further downside.
Volkswagen are also worth mentioning as the automotive industry came out with confirmed numbers for their 2014 sales. The German company climbed to the second spot on the back of excellent sales in China and despite slumps in North American and Russian markets, registering a jump of almost 4% on the announcement.
Monday 16.03.15 – No big announcements except for a speech by Mario Draghi at a summit on “The Future of the Finance Industry” in Frankfurt. As it’s not directly related to ECB dealings most traders don’t expect any revealing information to come from it, but you might just keep an eye on it.
Tuesday 17.03.15 – The most important daily event is related to the JPY. The Bank of Japan will be sharing its monetary policy statement during the Asian session. As usual there is no exact time set for the announcement and press conference.
Germany’s ZET Economic Sentiment is due at 10:00am GMT and it might influence the euro ahead of Wednesday’s main event.
The other more dynamic point is at 12:30pm when Canada and the U.S. will share their manufacturing sales and building permits data.
Wednesday 18.03.15 – The GBP will kick off the forex market with five pieces of data released at the same time – 9:30am GMT. Budget information for Britain will round things off at 12:30pm GMT.
The first course of the Federal Reserve’s release will be at 6:00pm GMT with economic projections, statements and the federal funds rate for the country. The press conference that might really speed things up for the EUR/USD will be at 6:30pm GMT.
Thursday 19.03.15 – The Asian session doesn’t have any news of its own to move things around, but its likely that they will be absorbing the words from Yellen.
It’s the same for the European session, but there are several more factors that will influence proceedings.
The Swiss National Bank will be first on stage in the European session both at 8:30am GMT when they announce their Libor Rate and monetary policy assessment and at 9:00am GMT when they hold a press conference. It’s one of the first times after their decision to remove the peg to the euro that they will come under more scrutiny.
This will be followed by unemployment claims numbers from the States at 12:30om GMT and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index at 2:00pm GMT.
Friday 20.03.15 – Relatively calm day, the AUD will be in the spotlight as the Royal Bank of Australia’s chairman will be speaking to the press at 2:10am GMT. The only other noteworthy announcement will be at 12:30pm GMT with Canadian data for CPI and Retail Sales released.
Here is our weekend reading selection:
The euro is falling like Diego Costa’s reputation and the ECB and Fed are the main drivers behind its recent movements. But it’s the Eurozone’s choices that will determine its faith in the long term. This article makes the case for more pro activeness, rather than austerity. (Wall Street Journal, registration required)
Almost everyone is talking about the euro and the dollar, showing us how short trader’s memories are. Don’t forget about the Swiss franc, especially as Thursday will see their National Bank sharing their thoughts. (Forbes)
There was plenty of talk of why people won’t buy the Apple Watch, but here’s one “pro” voice. The numbers will speak for themselves when it hits stores, so as something that will influence the stock price, it’s best to see what ticks the boxes for the hordes of Apple fans, showing what they might actually do, rather than what those on the other side might say. (Fool.com)
We’d also like to pay tribute to Terry Pratchett who passed away yesterday. The Telegraph made a good selection from his works, but we’d like to end with a quote from Interesting Times, one that can apply to the randomness of markets and indeed ourselves: “According to the philosopher Ly Tin Wheedle, chaos is found in the greatest abundance wherever order is being sought. It always defeats order, because it is better organized.”