Data from Australia, Canada and the U.S. will move markets next week
Four things drove the markets this week – the new deal with Greece, which just postpones the critical moment with several months; the continued fighting and exchange of accusations between Russia and the West and, probably having the most impact – Janet Yellen’s testimony before of Congress. The final was the veto on the Keystone pipeline project by Barack Obama.
The last one showed us that the Fed has definitely decided to lift interest rates, from on it will be a question of when exactly that will happen and how big the change will be. Markets had largely priced it in and indices continued upwards, although the EUR/USD level has now fallen to around 1.12.
Next week will keep the political stuff in the background, except if there’s something more severe, but the focus will be the announcements we see in the first week of each month.
Monday 02.03.15 – Happy Purchasing Managers Day! Announcements from China, Britain and the U.S. will keep the markets busy during the first day of the week. Core inflation for the Eurozone will be sprinkle on the cake.
Tuesday 03.03.15 – The AUD will have three days of actionable news, with the first coming in the early hours of Tuesday, with building approvals on a monthly basis will come out at 12:30am GMT, but this will only be the warm up before the cash rate decision and press conference of the RBA.
The PMI for the construction sector in the UK will come at 9:30am with the GDP number from Canada scheduled for the afternoon. This one will get more attention with the Keystone pipeline being put on hold for now (you can find a link to an article on that in our selection below).
Wednesday 04.03.15 – Australia will announce its GDP number at 12:30am GMT and kick-off the action in mid-week. One of the main events of the day will be the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change which comes 1:15pm GMT. If it’s outside of expectations it could move the USD.
This will be followed by two announcements from Canada, both at 3:00pm GMT – the Bank of Canada will give their rate announcement and their overnight rate. At the same hour the ISM non-manufacturing PMI will also come out, so the USD/CAD might see some volatility.
Thursday 05.03.15 – The hat-trick of expected activity for the Aussie dollar will be completed with the 12:30am GMT release of Trade Balance and Retail numbers. the GBP will most likely see some waves at 12:00pm GMT when the Official Bank Rate number will be shared with the public.
The ECB press conference will shed some light on the first effects of their QE and provide some background on the thought process that brought it about.
Friday 06.03.15 – The action will most likely come at a single point in the day – 1:30pm GMT. All key announcements for the day will be then. Canada’s building permits and trade balance are due then, but more importantly the crucial numbers for the U.S. are also coming then: Non-Farm Employment from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Trade Balance and the Unemployment Rate. Like in Wednesday, USD/CAD could see more pips in movement.
Here are our weekend reads, expanding on topics from the last days, giving some context to the expected volatility for the USD and CAD, including some tech and lifestyle stuff:
Here’s the low-down on the Obama veto for the Keystone project which you might have missed, but is actually quite important. (Washington Post)
Canada has a lot of vested interest in the project and here is Forbes’ take on that. (Forbes)
With all the talk of oil, we came across a simple explanation of electricity production with oil. (EDF Energy)
A vital aspect of the web was under fire this week, but the matter seems to be resolved with Net Neutrality being kept in place. (The Economist)
The main outcome from Janet Yellen’s two-day testimony turned into far more politics than usual and is further proof of the stalemate in government there. (CBS News)
We already mentioned the Apple Car here, but this article caught our eye with its constructive approach to the matter. (CNBC)
We got into a bit of a travelling mood and with cold temperatures outside, we naturally thought of a really cold place to go. (Mashable)